The Top 5 Geopolitical Trends To Watch In 2012
BI: 2012 is just around the corner and the macro trends are likely to dominate again. Nomura provides us with the 5 key trends to keep an eye on for the upcoming year (via Nomura):
1. Eurozone: The threat to the euro is greater now, in our view, than it has been at any time since the crisis started, with only the ECB now capable of averting
a catastrophe (Issue #1).
2. United States: Fiscal gridlock in election year now poses a real threat to US growth prospects (Issue #2).
3. MENA: Events remain consistent with our view that there will be a protracted period of political turmoil and uncertainty across the region, supportive of the oil price, despite growing concerns over global economic prospects (Issue #3).
4. China: We believe that China‟s leaders will do everything they can to ensure a smooth economic trajectory through to the completion of the handover of power from the 4th to the 5th generation leadership in March 2013 (Issue #4).
5. North Korea: Tensions appear still to be rising on the Korean peninsula (Issue #5).