Scientist predicts major earthquake in Middle East
The Middle East may not possess the same reputation for seismic disasters as some other parts of the world, but that is of little comfort to the people of north-west Iran, over 300 of whom were killed when a twin earthquake struck the country's mountainous region earlier this year. Destroying villages and injuring many thousands, the two six-plus magnitude quakes - striking the same location north-east of the city of Tabriz and spaced just 11 minutes apart - were among the worst to hit Iran since 2003, when an earthquake killed 25,000 people in the city of Bam.
Yet, if one Tel Aviv-based scientist is right, then Iran, which straddles a major fault line and has an unenviable reputation for seismic activity, is not the only part of the Middle East with a reason to fear for the safety of its towns and cities. Research conducted by Dr Shmulik Marco, an academic at the department of geophysics and planetary sciences at Tel Aviv University, has suggested that a seven-plus magnitude earthquake would imperil one of the region's most sacred places, encompassing such cities as Ramallah, Bethlehem and Jerusalem, raising fears of mass casualties and the destruction of holy sites.
"We fear that a major earthquake in the Holy Land is imminent," says Marco, whose research led him to conclude that following four major earthquakes in the region some 300 to 400 years apart in roughly the first millennium, the last 1,000 years of quiescence are a matter of grave concern for all in the Holy Land.
"Earthquakes are generated at the boundary between any two of the earth's tectonic plates that move relative to each other," explains Marco, who used a combination of scientific and historical research to deduce that the Holy Land is due an earthquake of potentially epic proportions.
"The friction does not allow smooth motion, so when the plate driving forces overcome the friction, the boundary ruptures as the plates move suddenly. This sudden rupture shakes the region and we call it an earthquake. The longer the plates move without rupturing, the more stress accumulates … Consequently, long periods of quiescence indicate that large stresses have been built up. The stresses will have to be released - sooner rather than later - in the next big earthquake."
Based on the translations of documents written in Latin, Greek and Arabic, and sourced from a number of religious institutions, Marco managed to ascertain that the region was pummeled by several major earthquakes in the years 31BC, AD363, AD749 and AD1033, and though this 300- to 400-year trend ended there, it was a pattern that sat uneasily with Marco himself.
"We know that earthquakes happen where they have happened before, so their location shouldn't come as any surprise. In our research we wanted to ask whether there was any pattern to their occurrence and what we could learn from past earthquakes. From that we wanted to learn about two things: first, about the phenomena itself, and second, assess the hazard or risk to human life.
"For [geologists], earthquakes are just like the noise or [heart]beat of the earth, just like a doctor who uses a stethoscope to listen to your body. And, from my geological observations where I examined the fine laminated sediments which had been disrupted by earthquakes near the Dead Sea Fault in the past, I managed to corroborate the historical accounts, which made it clear to me that all of us in the region should be worried."